Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
